Fork in the Road No More: Casual Dining Trends Broadening Out (BLMN, CAKE, CBRL, DIN, DRI, EAT, TXRH)
- Over the past several years, inflation has created divergent trends within the casual dining sector. While higher-income consumers have remained relatively insulated from rising costs, more price-sensitive diners have reduced the frequency of their restaurant visits in response to increased average check sizes. In this environment, consumers have increasingly concentrated their dining occasions around brands that deliver superior value and experience, often at the expense of lower-performing competitors.
- Occam tracks dining intentions among several hundred Americans daily and has observed a notable increase in planned dining expenditures over the next 12 months among lower- to middle-income households (those earning under $100K annually). In contrast, higher-income consumers are showing only a modest rise in dining spend expectations, suggesting that pent-up demand is resurfacing most strongly among value-oriented segments (data available upon request).
- In parallel, Occam continuously monitors the key factors influencing consumer perceptions across eight leading casual dining establishments. Cracker Barrel, Applebee’s, and Texas Roadhouse consistently stand out—recognized for relatively high food quality, but with price cited as a primary consideration by 60% of respondents. This underscores their resonance with the most price-sensitive diners in the market. As spending intent among these consumers begins to rise, these chains are well-positioned to benefit from potential conversion of latent demand into actual traffic.
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