As the 2024 presidential election nears, we expect the role of Independents as swing voters will once again come into focus. These voters, caught between the polarized views of the two major parties, often decide elections, and their shifting views on economic and social issues will likely be central to the outcome.  Inflation, jobs, and immigration are clear priorities for the general voting population, a reflection of continuing economic and social anxieties.  However, occam shows large differences when voter priorities are viewed by party affiliation and that shows Independents don’t simply “split the difference.”  On issues related to the economy, Independents look more like Republicans, whereas on social issues, Independents look more like Democrats.  For complementary insights, visit hingevoter.ai, which monitors the evolution of opinions held by swing voters who live in swing states.

In the weeks leading up to its IPO, Reddit launched two new initiatives designed to enhance opportunities for businesses and advertisers. First, Reddit introduced a data analytics suite known as Reddit Pro, which helps businesses identify relevant trending topics to engage with. A week later, it launched Free-Form Ads. This new ad format not only allows businesses to create ads that blend seamlessly with other posts but also enables interaction with users by allowing comments on the ads. Shortly after its IPO, Reddit also introduced Dynamic Product Ads, which uses machine learning to display relevant products to users based on past shopping behaviors and demonstrated Reddit interests. Data from occam shows that users engage across a broad spectrum of content, ranging from entertainment and sports to science. This wide variety of subreddits provides advertisers unique opportunities for highly targeted advertising.  Selling access to its data has also emerged as a new and lucrative revenue stream for Reddit – those training large language models (LLMs) value Reddit data not only for its vast and diverse content, but because it can improve the models’ ability to mimic varied linguistic styles and complex human interactions.  Join us as we examine occam data to explore the foundations of Reddit’s business.

As Americans debate the complex issues around weight management and body image, the landscape of anti-obesity medications is undergoing a dramatic transformation. Prescription volume for GLP-1 agonist drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy reflect a staggering 300% surge in prescriptions from 2020 to 2022. Despite facing criticism from advocates of the body-positivity movement and those cautioning against easy fixes to obesity, the demand for these medications has in particular significantly boosted market leader Novo Nordisk – so much so that the company has single-handedly begun to impact Denmark’s national economic statistics.  The surge has also triggered a wave of new, potentially more effective treatments like Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide-based Mounjaro and Zepbound. Below, we delve into this remarkable trend, shedding light on the expanding public consciousness, the subtle demographic patterns around consumption, and the waning apprehensions concerning potential side effects.

Legacy sneaker giants Nike and Adidas are facing headwinds, grappling with excess inventory and criticism for a perceived lack of innovation in their sneaker lineups.  Against this backdrop, On Running and Deckers’ HOKA, two lesser-known brands, are threatening to take further market share. Both had an impressive 2023, deploying marketing strategies rooted in meaningful innovation and positioning as premium sportswear. Below, occam provides an analysis of brand recognition, how these brands resonate with different demographics, and the qualities that consumers value in the products of these two brands. 

Since its debut in fall 2022, Pinduoduo Holdings’s Temu has experienced a meteoric rise rare for a new entrant in the competitive e-commerce space. Temu’s app consistently tops the charts on Apple’s App Store and Google Play store, and it has dethroned Alibaba as the largest Chinese e-commerce company by market cap, though it has arguably achieved these feats by prioritizing rapid growth over profitability. To understand Temu’s swift rise and its potential for sustaining this rate of growth, we consult occam to examine shifting trends in consumer spending habits, the demographics of Temu’s sizable user base, and the platform’s impact on competing retailers. Our exploration leads to some intriguing findings about Temu’s less-than-ideal customer satisfaction compared with giants like eBay and Amazon, and what improvements Temu users seek from the platform.

Building on the insights from “Decoding EV Demand: Battery-Powered Bubble,” this blog examines consumer brand preferences in the electric vehicle (EV) market. We examine the correlation between brand preferences for electric vehicles (EVs) and overall brand preferences, irrespective of drivetrain. Additionally, we analyze the year-over-year growth in consumer interest across different EV brands, compare Tesla’s current market share with future Tesla purchase intent, and investigate the possibility of emerging Tesla “fatigue” in western states with high Tesla penetration. We also examine EV brand preferences by age and income, and ‘cross-shopping intensity’ by EV brand.  We close with a brief examination of the burgeoning electric pickup truck market.

Over recent years, most of the incumbent automakers significantly ramped up investments in electric vehicles (EVs), gearing up for what they collectively saw as an EV future. Among others, GM said they were aiming for an all-electric range by 2035, Ford for 100% EV sales by 2030, Mercedes for 100% zero-emission vehicles by 2030, and Volkswagen for 100% EV sales by 2033. This collective shift in focus is now manifesting in a rapidly accelerating supply of EVs. In 2022, EVs comprised approximately 5.8% of new vehicles sold in the US, and in Q3 2023, they comprised approximately 7.9%. But after years of tight EV supply, this rapid supply growth seems to have overtaken demand growth. Cox Automotive reports that as of the start of October, days of inventory for new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles stood at between 52 and 58 days, but days of inventory for new EVs (excluding Tesla and other DTC brands) stands at a concerning 97 days. This growing disparity is driving manufacturers and dealers to roll out an increasing number of incentives to move EV inventory. Below, using insights from occam data, we look for shifts in consumer attitudes towards EVs and dissect the demographic drivers behind EV demand. (In a later blog, we will explore brand preferences among EV buyers – expect some surprises.)

With the headline unemployment rate reaching lows not seen in decades, and the labor force participation rate rising to pre-pandemic levels, by outward appearances, the American job market is robust and stable. However, a closer look using occam data reveals some underlying vulnerabilities that are beginning to surface.  Below, with insights and analysis from occam, we dissect the nuances of the present labor market and what may lie ahead for the American workforce over the coming months.

After a challenging post-covid phase marked by subscription losses that impacted revenues and its reputation as a consistent generator of growth, Netflix has daringly implemented two significant (if controversial) strategic maneuvers to considerable success, emerging as one of the stand-out performers of 2023. The first initiative put an end to account sharing. Though some observers initially dismissed the announcement as an empty threat or even a misstep, data from occam suggests the initiative is likely accretive to BOTH subscriptions and Average Revenue per Membership (ARM). The second initiative introduced an ad-supported subscription tier. Thus far, the plan has shown to be an effective churn reducer and incremental on-ramp to price sensitive consumers. Below, we reveal how both maneuvers are growing Netflix revenues and expanding its prized subscriber base.