Building on the insights from “Decoding EV Demand: Battery-Powered Bubble,” this blog examines consumer brand preferences in the electric vehicle (EV) market. We analyze the year-over-year growth in consumer interest across EV brands, brand preferences by age and income, “cross-shopping intensity” by EV brand, and we examine the correlation between brand preferences for EVs in particular vs. overall brand preferences, irrespective of drivetrain. We also give special attention to Tesla, comparing its recent market share with Tesla purchase intentions and investigate the possibility of an emerging Tesla “fatigue” in western states with high Tesla penetration. We close with a brief examination of the burgeoning electric pickup truck market.
When EV shoppers are asked to choose only a single brand, Tesla emerges as the clear favorite, with 32.1% of respondents selecting it.
However, Tesla’s purchase intent “market share” of 32.1% lies meaningfully below its actual Q3 2023 market share of 50% (down from 62% market share from Q1). This gap (a “book-to-bill” of sorts) suggests to us that the decline in Tesla’s share of the EV market may continue at a non-negligible pace. Clearly, if Tesla were able to stem the decline in its EV share (possibly with the introduction of a mass market car) and the current rate of growth of the EV market were to persist, Tesla could still reach US unit sales competitive with the largest players.
All EV brands tracked by occam show an increase in consumer interest year-over-year. **
Polestar and Rivian, despite their smaller market shares, have experienced significant proportional increases in consumer interest.
**Brands such as Honda, Subaru, Lexus, Jeep, Mazda, Acura, Cadillac, and Fisker were not tracked as of one year ago, therefore YoY figures are not available.
The table below shows which brands customers “cross-shop” when they are interested in the EV brand listed in the gray headers. Below the headers, the cross-shopped brands are listed in descending order of frequency.**
**Due to limited space, we feature here only 12 of the 26 EV brands tracked by occam. Interested in more? Create your account at occam.alpharoc.ai or contact us to schedule a demo!
On a relative basis, the Rivian R1T skews most heavily towards the highest income cohort, while the F-150 Lightning skews more heavily towards more moderate income cohorts.
Source: Analysis based on occam™ proprietary AI-enhanced research platform with various data sources, including a wide range of questions asked to over 1000 respondents per day with over three years of history. Information is census-balanced and uses occam’s™ proprietary AI algorithm that ensures minimal sampling bias (<1%). Contact us for more info.