Occam’s September 2023 CPI Forecast

CPI came in at a 3.7% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for CPI was 3.7%, which was better than the consensus estimate of 3.6%. Core CPI (ex food and energy) for September 2023 came in at a 4.1% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for Core CPI was 4.1% inline with consensus of 4.1%.  Occam’s powerful ML model continues to outperform the consensus forecast on important macroeconomic releases. Occam has accurately predicted that inflation would moderate at the current pace, and core inflation would steadily decline.

October 12, 2023
CPI Forecast vs Actual
  • Occam’s September 2023 CPI forecast was 3.7%, which came inline to the reported number of 3.7%, and better than the consensus estimate of 3.6%.
Core CPI Forecast vs Actual
  • Occam’s September 2023 Core CPI forecast was 4.1%, which came inline to the reported number of 4.1%, and inline with the consensus estimate of 4.1%.

Source: Analysis based on occam™ proprietary AI-enhanced research platform with various data sources, including a wide range of questions asked to over 1000 respondents per day with over three years of history. Information is census-balanced and uses occam’s™ proprietary AI algorithm that ensures minimal sampling bias (<1%). Contact us for more info.


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