CPI came in at a 3.7% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for CPI was 3.7%, which was better than the consensus estimate of 3.6%. Core CPI (ex food and energy) for September 2023 came in at a 4.1% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for Core CPI was 4.1% inline with consensus of 4.1%.  Occam’s powerful ML model continues to outperform the consensus forecast on important macroeconomic releases. Occam has accurately predicted that inflation would moderate at the current pace, and core inflation would steadily decline.

The pandemic years were a golden period for the housing market; remote work, drastically low rates, and a deluge of young, hungry American homebuyers accelerated home values, though supply shortages persisted. Accompanying this surge was also a record-high  in home improvement spending, taking the remodeling market to $570 billion last year. Now, the lack of housing inventory and the Federal Reserve’s war on inflation have reversed the tide. High mortgage rates have made owning a home unattainable for a majority of homebuyers and limiting  for homeowners. However, whether or not high mortgage rates will impact spending on home renovations is another question. Occam finds that while these rates have undeniably “handcuffed” homeowners and spending on major renovations continues to shrink, spending on minor renovations is stable, and growing. Average spending as well as visits per year for big-box home improvement centers such as Home Depot and Lowe’s reveal they are popular as ever, and if consumer sentiment is any indication, they should enjoy further success as they expand.

As the dust settles from the unveiling of Apple’s state-of-the-art Vision Pro AR/VR headset, there’s not only excitement, but also a palpable air of reservation among consumers. Its hefty price tag of $3500 is raising eyebrows, with many wondering if the headset will primarily be a toy for high-income early-adopters. Data from occam supports this notion: a substantial fraction of potential buyers are balking at the cost. Below, with the help of occam data, we explore consumer interest level in the headset, the implications of the high pricing, and how the headset might still provide a quiet win for Apple and its sticky ecosystem.

Originally a relatively obscure minigame website that drew in the more adventurous members of the online gaming community, Roblox has undergone a remarkable transformation, positioning itself as one of the most distinctive video game platforms in recent memory. With its foundation rooted in user-generated gaming content, customizable digital assets, and an inclusive digital atmosphere, Roblox holds the potential to become a formidable player in the Metaverse. However, despite the platform’s substantial success and heightened visibility as a result of the pandemic, questions linger regarding its long-term prospects. While occam data shows that Roblox maintains a strong presence in American households, exhibits cross-gender appeal, and boasts healthy monthly purchases among its paying users, it is also evident that the Roblox demographic remains decisively young. Occam will continue to monitor the company’s efforts to age up its user base, as it tries to emerge as a Metaverse winner.

The closely watched Core CPI (ex food and energy) for June 2023 came in at a 4.8% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for Core CPI was 4.9% better than consensus of 5.0%. Overall CPI came in at a 3.0% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for CPI was 3.1%, which was inline with the consensus estimate of 3.1%. Occam’s powerful ML model continues to outperform the consensus forecast on important macroeconomic releases. Occam has been correctly forecasting that inflation would be coming down at a record pace.

May 2023 CPI came in at a 4.0% increase year on year. Occam’s estimate for CPI was 4.1%, which was better than the consensus estimate of 4.2%. May 2023 Core CPI came in at 5.3%. Occam’s estimate for Core CPI was 5.3% better than consensus of 5.2%. Occam’s powerful ML model continues to outperform consensus on important macroeconomic releases. Occam has been correctly forecasting that inflation would be coming down at a record pace.