Building on the insights from “Decoding EV Demand: Battery-Powered Bubble,” this blog examines consumer brand preferences in the electric vehicle (EV) market. We examine the correlation between brand preferences for electric vehicles (EVs) and overall brand preferences, irrespective of drivetrain. Additionally, we analyze the year-over-year growth in consumer interest across different EV brands, compare Tesla’s current market share with future Tesla purchase intent, and investigate the possibility of emerging Tesla “fatigue” in western states with high Tesla penetration. We also examine EV brand preferences by age and income, and ‘cross-shopping intensity’ by EV brand.  We close with a brief examination of the burgeoning electric pickup truck market.

Over recent years, most of the incumbent automakers significantly ramped up investments in electric vehicles (EVs), gearing up for what they collectively saw as an EV future. Among others, GM said they were aiming for an all-electric range by 2035, Ford for 100% EV sales by 2030, Mercedes for 100% zero-emission vehicles by 2030, and Volkswagen for 100% EV sales by 2033. This collective shift in focus is now manifesting in a rapidly accelerating supply of EVs. In 2022, EVs comprised approximately 5.8% of new vehicles sold in the US, and in Q3 2023, they comprised approximately 7.9%. But after years of tight EV supply, this rapid supply growth seems to have overtaken demand growth. Cox Automotive reports that as of the start of October, days of inventory for new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles stood at between 52 and 58 days, but days of inventory for new EVs (excluding Tesla and other DTC brands) stands at a concerning 97 days. This growing disparity is driving manufacturers and dealers to roll out an increasing number of incentives to move EV inventory. Below, using insights from occam data, we look for shifts in consumer attitudes towards EVs and dissect the demographic drivers behind EV demand. (In a later blog, we will explore brand preferences among EV buyers – expect some surprises.)

With the headline unemployment rate reaching lows not seen in decades, and the labor force participation rate rising to pre-pandemic levels, by outward appearances, the American job market is robust and stable. However, a closer look using occam data reveals some underlying vulnerabilities that are beginning to surface.  Below, with insights and analysis from occam, we dissect the nuances of the present labor market and what may lie ahead for the American workforce over the coming months.

After a challenging post-covid phase marked by subscription losses that impacted revenues and its reputation as a consistent generator of growth, Netflix has daringly implemented two significant (if controversial) strategic maneuvers to considerable success, emerging as one of the stand-out performers of 2023. The first initiative put an end to account sharing. Though some observers initially dismissed the announcement as an empty threat or even a misstep, data from occam suggests the initiative is likely accretive to BOTH subscriptions and Average Revenue per Membership (ARM). The second initiative introduced an ad-supported subscription tier. Thus far, the plan has shown to be an effective churn reducer and incremental on-ramp to price sensitive consumers. Below, we reveal how both maneuvers are growing Netflix revenues and expanding its prized subscriber base.

Consumer debt has continued on a steep ascent, breaching $17 trillion for the first time in Q1. We also note a concerning but thus far modest upturn in delinquencies in certain credit categories. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York documents these trends but only issues updates on a quarterly basis, which is arguably too slow to be very useful; occam in contrast monitors various aspects of consumer credit on a daily basis, which allows portfolio managers an ability to track the financial health of the consumer in real time. Below, we examine trends in delinquency rates, explore the impact of the rising cost of living on consumer spending habits, and identify the demographic groups most impacted by the increasingly challenging economic conditions

Leveraging daily survey data from a large pool of respondents and a range of macroeconomic variables, then applying a mix of machine learning methods, occam has shown promise in forecasting macroeconomic releases (10 are being forecasted today, with more on the way). Occam has produced notably accurate estimates for the Index of Consumer Sentiment published by the University of Michigan (UMCSENT). Below, we analyze occam’s performance in predicting UMCSENT and briefly describe occam’s data collection as well as its forecasting approach.