Out-Predicting the Consensus: Occam’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment Forecast

Leveraging daily survey data from a large pool of respondents and a range of macroeconomic variables, then applying a mix of machine learning methods, occam has shown promise in forecasting macroeconomic releases (10 are being forecasted today, with more on the way). Occam has produced notably accurate estimates for the Index of Consumer Sentiment published by the University of Michigan (UMCSENT). Below, we analyze occam’s performance in predicting UMCSENT and briefly describe occam’s data collection as well as its forecasting approach.