El-Sayed looked like he was running ahead. AlphaROC polling said it would be close – days ahead of the vote

• 'AlphaROC surveyed a random sample of previous Michigan primary voters ahead of the August 2026 contest and projected an extremely tight race, with Abdul El‑Sayed holding only a narrow lead.
• 'The projection aligned almost exactly with the final result: El‑Sayed was estimated at 48.6% and finished at 48.5%. The model’s 1.8‑point projected margin over Stevens landed within a point of the final 1.0‑point margin. The Associated Press called the race at 9:56 a.m. Wednesday, with El‑Sayed ahead by just one point at 99% reporting.
• 'Public polling averages suggested a far less competitive race. As of August 3, many public trackers showed El‑Sayed leading by upwards of 19 points. AlphaROC’s projected 1.8‑point margin came within a single point of the certified result. Subscribe today to stay ahead of the curve.

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